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Swiss ZEW investor sentiment august: 7.2 vs 4.8 prev
EZ Q2 flash GDP 0.3% vs 0.2% exp q/q
UK BOE MPC minutes in full
Sterling running with the data
UK BOE MPC minutes: 9-0 vote to leave QE unchanged as prev
July UK Labour report: Claims -29.2k vs -15.0k exp
AUDUSD orders 14 August
Technical levels 14 August
EURJPY orders 14 August
USDJPY orders 14 August
German BDI federation cuts 2013 growth forecast to +0.5% vs +0.8% prev
Cable testing strong buying interest
Yen firmer as Japanese exporters step in
Swissy on the slide still
Swiss producer import prices july: m/m 0.0% as expected
Shanghai comp index closes down 0.29% at 2100.14
European equity markets open a little firmer
GBPUSD orders 14 August
French CPI final july: m/m -0.3% vs -0.4% exp
EURUSD orders 14 August

Swiss ZEW investor sentiment august: 7.2 vs 4.8 prev

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 02:04 AM PDT

EZ Q2 flash GDP 0.3% vs 0.2% exp q/q

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 02:00 AM PDT

Prior -0.2% revised to -0.3% (Q1)
-0.7% vs -0.8% y/y. Prior -1.1%

Well Europe is officially out of recession (until the revision anyway). EUR/USD celebrates by falling 10 pips.

UK BOE MPC minutes in full

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 01:47 AM PDT

I gave you the link but here’s the minutes in full

Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting held on 31 July and 1 August 2013

14 August 2013

The Governor invited the Committee to vote on the proposition that:

The Committee intends not to raise Bank Rate from its current level of 0.5% at least until the Labour Force Survey (LFS) headline measure of the unemployment rate has fallen to a threshold of 7%, subject to the conditions below.

The MPC stands ready to undertake further asset purchases while the LFS unemployment rate remains above 7% if it judges that additional monetary stimulus is warranted. But until the unemployment threshold is reached, and subject to the conditions below, the MPC intends not to reduce the stock of asset purchases financed by the issuance of central bank reserves and, consistent with that, intends to reinvest the cashflows associated with all maturing gilts held in the Asset Purchase Facility.

This guidance linking Bank Rate and asset sales to the unemployment threshold would cease to hold if any of the following three knockouts were breached:

In the MPC's view, it is more likely than not that CPI inflation 18 to 24 months ahead will be 0.5 percentage points or more above the 2% target;
Medium-term inflation expectations no longer remain sufficiently well anchored;
The Financial Policy Committee (FPC) judges that the stance of monetary policy poses a significant threat to financial stability that cannot be contained by the substantial range of mitigating policy actions available to the FPC, the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority in a way consistent with their objectives.

Regarding the proposition, eight members of the Committee (the Governor, Charles Bean, Paul Tucker, Ben Broadbent, Spencer Dale, Paul Fisher, Ian McCafferty and David Miles) voted in favour. One member of the Committee (Martin Weale), while supportive of the adoption of forward guidance, voted against the proposition in order to register his preference for a time horizon for the first inflation knockout that was shorter than proposed. He nevertheless intended to form his future judgements about the application of guidance and the knockout criteria in line with the framework adopted by the Committee.

The Governor then invited the Committee to vote on the propositions that:

Bank Rate should be maintained at 0.5%;
The Bank of England should maintain the stock of asset purchases financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at £375 billion.

Regarding Bank Rate, the Committee voted unanimously in favour of the proposition.

Regarding the stock of asset purchases, the Committee voted unanimously in favour of the proposition.

Sterling running with the data

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 01:41 AM PDT

~~1.5500~~ under pressure in GBP/USD with the positive jobs number although the unemployment rate remaining unchanged will emphasise the low rate forward guidance.

1.5500 goes and posts a high of 1.5506. 1.5523 the first point of decent resistance being the 200 dma and Dec 2012 trendline.

UK BOE MPC minutes: 9-0 vote to leave QE unchanged as prev

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 01:30 AM PDT

9-0 to keep interest rates on hold as prev
8-1 for fwd guidance framework ( Weale the dissident)

Full minutes here

Headlines to follow here

Martin Weale votes against the framework for forward guidance framework as set out by governor Carney
Weale wanted shorter term horizon for 2.5% inflation knockout
still some split between hawks and doves
doves saying there is still a need for further stimulus but will see what impact fwd guidance has
most members say short-term interest rates out of line with economic outlook

Generally more hawkish than dovish but GBP better bid more on the better jobs data

July UK Labour report: Claims -29.2k vs -15.0k exp

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 01:30 AM PDT

Prior -21.2k. Revised to -29.4
Claimant count rate down to 4.3% from 4.4% and lowest since Feb 2009
June Unemployment rate 7.8% vs 7.8% exp. Prior 7.8%
June Average earnings 2.1% vs 2.0% exp

Nice revision and the biggest fall since May 2010. Unemployment rate unchanged though.

Cable bolts to 1.5496. GBP/JPY puts on 70 pips to 152.37. EUR/GBP down to 0.8556 from 0.8590.

UK labour report chart 14 August 2013

AUDUSD orders 14 August

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 01:23 AM PDT

Currently 0.9098

Sellers 0.9115 0.9135 0.9150 0.9160 0.9180 0.9200 0.9220

Buyers 0.9085 0.9050 0.9020 0.9000 0.8975 0.8950 0.8920

Technical levels 14 August

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 01:21 AM PDT

Morning folks

Here are today’s levels.

Technical analysis levels 14 August 2013

EURJPY orders 14 August

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 01:18 AM PDT

Currently 130.38

Sellers 130.90 131.00 131.20 131.50 132.00

Buyers 130.00 129.85 129.50 129.20 129.00 128.80

USDJPY orders 14 August

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 01:15 AM PDT

Currently 98.25 again after just posting 98.01 lows

Sellers 98.50 98.60 98.80 99.00 99.15 99.30 99.50

Buyers 98.00 97.85 97.50 97.20 97.00 96.85

German BDI federation cuts 2013 growth forecast to +0.5% vs +0.8% prev

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 01:05 AM PDT

Latest from the BDI

last forecast was in Jan
says it will be difficult for Germany to reach 3.5% export growth this year as per previous forecast

Cable testing strong buying interest

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 12:52 AM PDT

As per my earlier orderboard there is good demand between 1.5430-20

Low so far 1.5429

Currently 1.5437

MPC minutes and UK jobs data out at 08.30 GMT

Yen firmer as Japanese exporters step in

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 12:40 AM PDT

Decent sell interest from exporters up toward 98.50 has capped USDJPY and forced yen pairs lower

Currently 98.08

EURJPY 130.15

Swissy on the slide still

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 12:23 AM PDT

In the absence of any real trend elsewhere, but generally a firmer USD prevailing, we’ve seen traders switch their attention back to the Swiss pairs

Adding to the CHF weakness have been recent comments from SNB members re-iterating their position on the 1.20 EURCHF cap, plus good buying interest from Swiss corporate names as I highlighted yesterday.

At that time we were seeing some decent resistance but a further move this morning has seen EURCHF break higher through 1.2400 to 1.2427 and USDCHF up to 0.9368

We’ve been long-time advocates of buying the dips on these pairs, although admittedly it’s not always been easy to pick the base, and a certain degree of pain has had to be worn on occasion. But hey, whoever said forex is easy ?!

Good two-way action up here on EURCHF with funds earlier seen taking some profit around 1.2420

Currently lower again at 1.2406 and 0.9354