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Monday, August 19, 2013

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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Spain’s bad loans keep on growing

Posted: 19 Aug 2013 02:00 AM PDT

Despite shovelling billions in bad property loans and other assets to the Spanish toxic bank Sareb, Spain’s bad loans rose to 11.6% of all credit in June. This was up from 11.2% in May and it still looks like increasing further.

Spain’s property market is in a real mess. Unlike most normal recovering housing markets there was a lot going on behind the scenes with corruption, plenty of less than legit building firms and flouting of regulations. This was rife in the tourist areas. There were plenty of legitimate firms and businesses that suffered as well, but there is a lot still to unravel before a normalised recovery can take place. Prices are still very depressed and many Spanish and tourist home owners are underwater.

Greek current account balance june: y/y EUR +0.663 bln vs 0.073 bln prev

Posted: 19 Aug 2013 01:37 AM PDT

  • y/y June tourism receipts rise to EUR 1.591 bln  vs 1.391 bln prev

Encouraging data from the struggling economy and with the rest of summer figures still to come in

 

Technical levels 19 August

Posted: 19 Aug 2013 01:30 AM PDT

Hi all.

Hope you had a good weekend.

Here are the levels for a bright and breezy Monday.

Technical analysis levels 19 August 2013

Technical levels 19 August 2013

AUDUSD orders 19 August

Posted: 19 Aug 2013 01:28 AM PDT

Currently 0.9204

Sellers 0.9220 0.9230 0.9240 0.9250 0.9270 0.9300 0.9230 0.9240

Buyers 0.9175 0.9150  0.9140 0.9130 0.9110 0.9100 0.9090 0.9080

forex market orders for AUDUSD 19 August 2013

AUDUSD oders 19 August

London crane watch

Posted: 19 Aug 2013 01:26 AM PDT

Whilst in and around the City on Sunday – at a function, 15 floors up – I happened to notice the huge number of cranes dotted about the London skyline. Now like most people who live in a city, you tend to only see those things which are most familiar to you, until something catches your eye, and spurs you on to look again, but with a different focus. So I decided to try and get some perspective on this – after all, just because I noticed a large number of cranes, it didn`t necessarilly mean that they had magically appeared overnight.

So I did a little bit of research. As of mid May this year, building activity in London had trebled from its low in 2010, to reach a four year high – and by the look of things on Sunday, that activity had further gathered momentum. AND, of the building under construction, 33% of it is pre let, compared to only 1% back in 2011., so potential tenants are going ahead with plans now, rather than sitting back and waiting for things to improve/get cheaper.

I also managed to talk to a few friends who run businesses parallel to the building industry ie. making windows/doors/plastics etc. and all reported a surge in demand over, specifically, the last 6 months, with business levels now at or above pre recessionary levels.

I would sum this up by saying that economic activity in this part of the world, and in this particular sector, is booming. Not a true reflection on the UK as a whole, but cause for optimism that GDP may normalise perhaps a little faster than is currently envisaged.

Also, Carney……Crane……….make up your own mind, too similar for my liking AND, you never see them out together.

 

 

EURJPY orders 19 August

Posted: 19 Aug 2013 01:20 AM PDT

Currently 130.03

Sellers 130.30 130.40 130.50 130.75 131.00 131.20

Buyers 129.85 129.65 129.50 129.25 129.00 128.80

forex market orders for EURJPY 19 August 2013

EURJPY orders for 19 August

USDJPY orders 19 August

Posted: 19 Aug 2013 12:36 AM PDT

Currently 97.60

Sellers 97.90 98.00 98.10 98.30 98.50 98.65  98.85 99.00

Buyers 97.35 97.20 97.10 97.00 96.80 96.60 96.50 96.40 96.20 96.00

forex market orders USDJPY 19 August 2013

USDJPY orders for 19 August

EURGBP orders 19 August

Posted: 19 Aug 2013 12:22 AM PDT

Currently 0.8525

Sellers 0.8535 0.8555 0.8570 0.8585  0.8600 0.8610 0.8620 0.8630

Buyers 0.8515 0.8500 0.8485 0.8465 0.8450

Forex market orders for EURGBP 19 August 2013

EURGBP orders for 19 August

European equity markets open mostly lower

Posted: 19 Aug 2013 12:07 AM PDT

  • FTSE +0.1%
  • DAX -0.1%
  • CAC 40 -0.1%
  • IBEX -0.1%
  • FTMIB  -0.1%

Shanghai comp index closes up 0.83% at 2085.60

Posted: 19 Aug 2013 12:04 AM PDT

GBPUSD orders 19 August

Posted: 18 Aug 2013 11:57 PM PDT

Currently 1.5617

Sellers 1.5640 1.5655 1.5680 1.5700 1.5720 1.5750

Buyers 1.5610 1.5600 1.5585 1.5550 1.5525 1.5500

forex market orders for GBPUSD 19 August 2013

GBPUSD orders for 19 August

UK’s CBI sees economy growing by 1.2% in 2013

Posted: 18 Aug 2013 11:43 PM PDT

The Confederation of British Industry, representing 240,000 businesses, has raised its forecast from 1.00%

It has also raised its forecast for 2014 to 2.3% from 2%

Director General Sir John Cridland says

The economy has started to gain momentum and confidence is picking up, but it’s still early days

The CBI also sees the BOE’s forward guidance as having a positive effect

More from the BBC here

EURUSD orders 19 August

Posted: 18 Aug 2013 11:32 PM PDT

Currently going nowhere fast at 1.3325

Sellers 1.3340 1.3350 1.3360 1.3380 1.3390 1.3400 1.3410 1.3420 1.3450

Buyers 1.3315 1.3300 1.3285 1.3265 1.3250 1.3220 1.3200

forex market orders for EURUSD 19 August

EURUSD orders for 19 August

Eurostoxx 50 futures down 0.04% in early trading

Posted: 18 Aug 2013 11:06 PM PDT

  • FTSE futures +0.2%
  • DAX futures -0.04%
  • CAC 40 futures -0.2%

Bund futures down 45 at 139.77

German 10 year bund yields at 1.924%. highest since march 2012

Nikkei closes up 0.79% at 13,758.13

Posted: 18 Aug 2013 11:02 PM PDT

  • closing on session highs
  • +108.02
  • low 13,589.78
  • USDJPY firmer again at 97.65

Nikkei still in positive territory but off its highs

Posted: 18 Aug 2013 10:11 PM PDT

As we head into the final hour the Nikkei is at 13,694 ( +0.34%) but off it’s highs of 13,742.75

USDJPY also lower at 97.55

Everbright Securities says human error caused mistaken bond trade in China morning session

Posted: 18 Aug 2013 10:02 PM PDT

These guys are getting a little careless huh?

After the Chinese brokerage was caught up in “trading system error” on Friday today’s  mistake occurred on a trade with a face value of 10 million yuan (USD1.64 m) of government bonds. A trader mistakenly inputted a yield of 4.20%, 25 basis points higher than the yield on the same bond at Friday’s close.

Data coming up in this session

Posted: 18 Aug 2013 09:55 PM PDT

Good day one and all

I trust you had a great, or at least peaceful, week-end

It’s been a quiet start to the week in Asia, apart from a Nikkei-led move higher in USDJPY and one glance at the orderboard tells us that we won’t be looking at that for inspiration today

But hopefully we’ll get something to kick-start us into action, altough after the fun and games of last week and vacation conditions still prevailing we shouldn’t get too excited.

Eamonn says we do have some data at 05.00GMT, final figures from Japan for the June leading index (107.0 prior) and coincident index (prior 105.2) but not a game changer, and I can’t see it on my schedules anywhere.

As ever though we’ll be looking to do what we can to help make/save you a few pips as the day unfolds

Have a good week everyone

Times GMT

Economic data 19 August 2013

Economic data 19 August 2013

Option expiries 10am NY cut 19 August

Posted: 18 Aug 2013 09:44 PM PDT

  • USDJPY  96.80 97.00 97.50 97.75 98.00 98.25 99.25 99.75
  • EURUSD  1.3200 1.3285 1.3310 1.3400 1.3405
  • GBPUSD 1.5600 1.5615 1.5620 1.5650 1.5655 1.5700
  • USDCHF  0.9200 0.9220 0.9250 0.9260
  • AUDUSD 0.9100
  • USDCAD 1.0350 1.0400
  • EURGBP 0.8550
  • AUDNZD 1.1455

PBOC governor says they will continue with prudent monetary policy in H2 2013

Posted: 18 Aug 2013 09:32 PM PDT

China’s central bank governor on Reuters

  • will fine-tune policy if needed but big adjustments unlikely
  • China making plans to relax controls on deposit rates

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