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• Buba’s Weidmann says EU crisis is far from over
• BOE’s Bean says sending clear signal rates will not increase anytime soon
• EUR/USD back below the 200 wma
• ECB’s Liikanen sees a relatively strong US recovery
• European session orders 26 August
• European stock market open 26 August
• Technical levels Monday 26 August
• Syria’s Assad warns America over possible attacks
• USD/JPY slipping as Nikkei slides
• UBS sees AUD/USD at 0.8800 in 3 months
• Moody’s keeping an eye on German banks
• Option levels 26 August
• ForexLive Asia-Pacific wrap: Aussie shakes off early stumble
• Chinese stocks underpinning Australian dollar climb
• Book recommendations from a solid source
• EUR/USD orders and technical analysis August 26, 2013
• Germany stops pretendings Greece won’t need more money
• Chinese stats chief points finger at QE for high commodity prices
• Japan to decide on sales tax increase by October 7
• The last place you want to look for an honest assessment of the Chinese economy

Buba’s Weidmann says EU crisis is far from over Posted: 26 Aug 2013 01:46 AM PDT Bundesbank head, Jens Weidmann was interviewed by Germany’s Handelsblatt. The news has been out over the weekend so I’ll just summarise the main points. With strong words on the EU crisis he says; The structural problems in the crisis countries have built up over a long period of time. They can’t be resolved in just a few quarters, but will need years. It’s factually wrong to say the crisis is over and will only lead to an easing up of reform efforts On the subject of low rates; My assumption is not that interest rateswill remain low for years, not least because the economic impulse of ultra-easy monetary policy will fade with time and the risks for financial stability will increase He also spoke about Greece and the possibility of another round of aid and debt restructuring saying that; another restructure would only see us facing the same problem in 5 years and is counterproductive and a wrong signal to program countries Further comments are just crossing the wires from a speech he is giving in Berlin ECB nond purchases would weaken countries own responsibility to solve problems ECB should preserve price stability to contribute to crisis solution Monetary policy has entered unknown dangerous ground and can only provide time to solve crisis Banks must be allowed to fail ECB Monetary policy has already made significant contribution

BOE’s Bean says sending clear signal rates will not increase anytime soon Posted: 26 Aug 2013 01:45 AM PDT Further to Jackson Hole comments yesterday via CNBC and Bloomberg/Reuters, deputy governor Charlie Bean has more to say. QE always an option on the table A little but surprised on market reaction to guidance BOE not trying to manipulate market BOE giving clear signal rate rise not imminent 7% unemployment threshold is sensible Guidance valuable when recovery gathering pace Sees no sign of UK housing boom emerging The problem with these lot is that they never see a “boom” until they are in the middle of it. Even if we do get a boom, if the guidance thresholds aren’t met then they will be able to do little about it. Cable taking a little run up to 1.5580 on the blurb about low rates.

EUR/USD back below the 200 wma Posted: 26 Aug 2013 12:52 AM PDT Not closing above the 200 wma has seen some downward pressure come in and we’ve fallen below it early in the European session. EUR/USD weekly chart 26 August 2013 We fell into bids at 1.3365 and while there is minor technical support at 1.3333/37 the broken May 2011 resistance line will be a fairly good test for support with strong bids seen at 1.3300. 1.3400 is still containing the long running range despite quick breaks above but the break of the May trendline could open the door for a push higher. With a raft of US data out this week we could have some wild moves as the taper mob start fine tuning the FOMC expectations.

ECB’s Liikanen sees a relatively strong US recovery Posted: 26 Aug 2013 12:35 AM PDT Says EU showing uncertain positive signals Market situation has eased slightly Finland’s structural problems deep even as crisis eases

European session orders 26 August Posted: 26 Aug 2013 12:29 AM PDT As Mike’s off today I’ve just knocked up the orders on one page. FX market orders 26 August 2013

European stock market open 26 August Posted: 26 Aug 2013 12:24 AM PDT FTSE Eurofirst +0.1% Dax +0.1% Cac +0.1% Ibex -0.2% FTSE Mib -0.3%

Technical levels Monday 26 August Posted: 25 Aug 2013 11:13 PM PDT Here are the levels for today. Technical levels Monday 26 August 2013

Syria’s Assad warns America over possible attacks Posted: 25 Aug 2013 10:33 PM PDT Says failure awaits the United States if it attacks Syria and that western statements on chemical weapons use are illogical and politically motivated. Russia also voices it’s concern over possible US military action and urges restraint. Further ramping up of possible military talk will obviously see oil and gold higher but I don’t think the US is interested in a fight. Given the current ill feeling between Russia and the US I’d be more worried about that heating up further with Syria as the excuse.

USD/JPY slipping as Nikkei slides Posted: 25 Aug 2013 10:16 PM PDT Down to 98.58 as the Nikkei falls into the red down at 13642 and is just 56 odd ticks from the low at 13586.

UBS sees AUD/USD at 0.8800 in 3 months Posted: 25 Aug 2013 09:50 PM PDT They drop their 1 month and 3 month forecasts to 0.88 from 0.90. Back in Feb their Q3 2013 was 1.000. They also say that the RBA may cut if the currency fails to decline further

Moody’s keeping an eye on German banks Posted: 25 Aug 2013 09:30 PM PDT Moody’s say that German Q2 GDP of 0.7% and low rates isn’t credit positive and is leading to weak loan demand and hurting banks. German companies relying on own internal cash flows, diversifying funding in debt capital markets. Lending margins are the lowest in Europe for German banks

Option levels 26 August Posted: 25 Aug 2013 09:12 PM PDT Morning all. Hope you all had a good weekend? Here are today’s option levels at play for expiry at the NY cut 14.00 gmt. EUR/GBP 0.8555 AUD/USD 0.8925, 0.8930*, 0.9050*, 0.9150 EUR/USD 1.3315, 1.3335, 1.3350, 1.3360, 1.3420 USD/JPY 97.00, 98.00, 98.50, 100.00 USD/CHF 0.9350 USD/CAD 1.0400, 1.0450, 1.0460, 1.0465, 1.0570 *Updated

ForexLive Asia-Pacific wrap: Aussie shakes off early stumble Posted: 25 Aug 2013 08:49 PM PDT Forex headlines for August 26, 2013: China stats chief: Seeing clearer signs of growth stabilization New Zealand trade deficit $774 million vs $16 million deficit expected ECB's Demetriades says a rate cut is 'still in the cards'’ Japan July corporate service price index +0.4% y/y, as expected S&P sees New Zealand current account deficits up to 6% of GDP by 2015 Japan to decide on sales tax increase by October 7 Amgen/Onyx pharmaceutical merger announced Nikkei +0.1% Shanghai Comp +1.4% NZD and AUD lead, CAD lags Early indications pointed to a large drop in USD/JPY to start the week. The pair touched 98.17 in pre-market trading from 98.72 at the close on Friday. From there it was a steady climb higher and the pair touched as high as 98.85 before sliding back to unchanged. The euro was in a deep slumber, scaling between 1.3378 and 1.3395 with the latest move another failed attempt at 1.3380. Not sure I would read too much into that because there hasn’t been any urgency so far. Cable has similarly ranged from 1.5563 to 1.5589. The Australian dollar struggled in early trading, falling to 0.9012 and hitting some weak stops but an upbeat tone in Chinese stocks is lending the Australian dollar a hand and the latest push extended to 0.9044. Gold sent out a head fake to start the week. It climbed to $1407 minutes after the weekly open but was slammed down to $1391 shortly after. Potential conflict in Syria was the reason for rises in gold and oil. The UK is closed and the European calendar is thin so the potential for fireworks is low. I’ll be back for US trading and the durable goods orders report. The WSJ has a solid preview here.

Chinese stocks underpinning Australian dollar climb Posted: 25 Aug 2013 08:35 PM PDT The Aussie close to the highs of the day as Chinese stocks gain momentum. Soothing words from the Statistics chief have led to a 1.4% rally in the Shanghai Composite and that’s lending a hand to AUD and NZD. Friday’s high of 0.9050 is the near-term resistance level to watch. Spot at 0.9040.

Book recommendations from a solid source Posted: 25 Aug 2013 08:24 PM PDT I often get asked for book recommendations and I usually point people the Market Wizards series but The Big Picture blog has a nice list of alternatives. I’ve read everyone one on the list and they’re all solid except Reminiscences of a Stock Operator which is entertaining but I always thought lacked a certain authenticity. Freakonomics is also more of a pop book than anything particularly interesting to a trader.

EUR/USD orders and technical analysis August 26, 2013 Posted: 25 Aug 2013 07:45 PM PDT The euro has been quiet so far in Asian trading, stuck in a range between 1.3378-1.3395. Bids at Friday’s low of 1.3334, more at 1.3300 and just below. Better demand at 1.3285/80 with stops below Offers at Friday’s high of 1.3410, stretching to 1.3420 (good size).  A mix of buy stops and offers up to the 6-month high at 1.3452 Technically, EUR/USD wasn’t able to take advantage of the break of the June high of 1.3416 but the fall back after the breakout was hardly a rejection. Every time the euro begins to struggle it finds new life, making it very difficult to bet against. One factor slightly working against longs is the positioning data from the CFTC. It shows us that euro longs are suddenly en vogue, meaning the short-squeeze rallies of the past are probably over. At times, when sentiment on the euro shifts to neutral, it’s time to go the other way.

Germany stops pretendings Greece won’t need more money Posted: 25 Aug 2013 07:34 PM PDT Earlier today German fin min Schaeuble was out saying Greece will “most likely” need another aid program while saying it will be “much lower” than previous ones. Merkel & Co have been grilled about Greece ahead of Sept 22 elections. They have been saying no more money was coming but opponents attacked them because of the complete implausibility of Greek finances improving.

Chinese stats chief points finger at QE for high commodity prices Posted: 25 Aug 2013 07:18 PM PDT Chinese statistic bureau spokesman Sheng Laiyun, in addition to his earlier statement: QE raises commodity prices and pressures emerging markets Overcapacity is still a serious problem in China Overcapacity keeps PPI in negative territory US QE exit should consider emerging markets The Fed’s Lockhart isn’t making any friends in political or central banking circles with this comment: "You have to remember that we are a legal creature of Congress and that we only have a mandate to concern ourselves with the interest of the United States," Dennis Lockhart, president of the Atlanta Fed, told Bloomberg Television's Michael McKee. "Other countries simply have to take that as a reality and adjust to us if that's something important for their economies."

Japan to decide on sales tax increase by October 7 Posted: 25 Aug 2013 06:57 PM PDT Japanese advisory panels are meeting this week to discuss a planned increase of the sales tax to 8% from 5% and then officials will huddle to make a decision. The Prime Minister hasn't decided yet whether [a decision] will come in late September or early October. At the latest, I think it will be before the APEC leader's summit that starts in Indonesia on Oct. 7,” Economy Minister AkiraAmari said on NHK television's Sunday Debate program. Amari said sticking with the planned sales tax increase is best but the potential problems need to be examined. On Thursday, there were reports that Japan is considering a tax break on factory equipment which could be something to offset the effect on companies.

The last place you want to look for an honest assessment of the Chinese economy Posted: 25 Aug 2013 06:45 PM PDT But we’ll entertain the headlines from Chinese statistic bureau spokesman Sheng Laiyun anyway: Chinese economy showing positive changes Seeing clearer signs of growth stabilization Sees some improvements in the external environment China PPI shows improving demand for commodities I would love to dispute these comments but Chinese stocks are 11% from the June bottom so something good might be happening there. When did I get so cynical?

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